By now virtually every investor has heard the argument that the U.S. dollar is slated to lose its status as the global reserve currency. And that’s good – as far as it goes.
What’s bad is that many of these investors have yet to latch onto the fact that this could happen much sooner than many people realize and in a manner that will catch most by surprise.
Published by Bapcha Murty //
Investors who pay attention to Japan’s looming election can expect to be well-rewarded for their time.
Normally, we confess, Japanese elections don’t matter much, because the same guys always win. However, this one – set for Aug. 30 – looks different: It may actually bring about the first real change in Japan’s government in 55 years.
Published by Bapcha Murty //
When India unveiled its annual budget on July 6, it immediately caused a sharp drop in the rupee, as well as a 5.8% decline in the benchmark BSE Sensex stock index that had soared 55% so far this year.
Published by Bapcha Murty //
Posted on June 9th, 2009 in Uncategorized
Among the companies that we looked at in the prior article, many can be eliminated with ease. So, let’s get the job done systematically.
a. Applied Materials. With pristine financials and the enviable position as the #1 purveyor of machines that the semiconductor industry needs to make their chips, Applied flies through the initial screen.
b. [...]
Published by Bapcha Murty //
Posted on June 9th, 2009 in Uncategorized
Semiconductor sales for 2009 will be down anywhere up to 25% from about $250 Billion in 2008, and with sales exceeding 2008 levels only in 2012 or 2013. ASP’s [average selling price] for all memory makers is in the trash, and for high-margin companies like Linear (LLTC), Maxim (MXIM), Analog Devices (ADI); their sales to [...]
Published by Bapcha Murty //
What was cutting-edge back in the 1970’s – in the days of mainframe computers and centralized computing is new again. I am talking about virtualization. The current version of virtualization is significantly different in that the computing equipment need not necessarily be centralized. In fact, in its current iteration, distributed “clouds” of computers can be configured to work as a virtual server, or if there is an excess of centralized computing power, that can be fractioned into multiple servers. When one talks about virtualization, or “cloud computing”, the first company that comes to anyone’s mind is – VMWare. But VMWare is controlled by EMC. So, is it better to buy into VMW – or is it better to buy into EMC ?
Published by Bapcha Murty //
Madoff hooked a whole bunch of investors. Here, we “categorize” these investors into seven types and highlight what their “investing mistake” was. Hopefully, this piece is both educational and entertaining.
Published by Bapcha Murty //
Among the companies that we looked at in the prior article, many can be eliminated with ease. So, let’s get the job done systematically.
The five companies that will survive this down-turn in the semiconductor market, and thrive afterwards, have a few things in common.
a. A strong balance sheet, with a large cash position [or in Linear's case, a manageable debt, and a fantastic competitive position as reflected by gross margins].
b. An excellent competitive position.
c. Strong management that is still “invested” in the company.
d. Has survived prior attacks on its competitive position.
and finally,
e. Pass my rigorous standards.
Published by Bapcha Murty //
Yesterday morning, Gartner and IDC had sobering news for the semiconductor business. Sales will be down anywhere from 15% to 33% from about $250 Billion in 2008, and with sales exceeding 2008 levels only in 2012 or 2013. ASP’s [average selling price] for all memory makers is in the trash, and even high margin companies are seeing their market share contract. So, who can survive this nuclear winter ? Obviously, the ones with a better competitive position, and a huge cash hoard.
Published by Bapcha Murty //
The Gramm-Leach-Bliley [GLB] act repealed Glass-Steagall [G-S] – which was the law of the land here in the USA from 1933 to 1999. G-S created the FDIC, and prohibited large private banks – whose primary business is the investment business – from receiving deposits from the public. My Rx for America involves a dose of bitter medicine, and no money for bankers….
Published by Bapcha Murty //
